The economic bill arrived faster than almost any analyst predicted. The International Energy Agency announced an emergency release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves—a measure rarely deployed—as the conflict severed roughly 8 million barrels per day from global supply. Goldman Sachs revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward by 0.8 percentage points to 2.9% and slashed GDP growth projections by 0.3 points to 2.2%. In a worst-case scenario—a full month of disruption with crude averaging $110 a barrel—Goldman put recession probability at 25%.
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Ray said seeing the newly-built ships sail down the Tyne was a "proud time", before adding: "But there was a cost, and we are finding out the costs."